This paper provides a theoretical analysis of Transformers' limitations for time series forecasting through the lens of In-Context Learning (ICL) theory, demonstrating that even powerful Transformers often fail to outperform simpler models like linear models. The study focuses on Linear Self-Attention (LSA) models and shows that they cannot achieve lower expected MSE than classical linear models for in-context forecasting, and that predictions collapse to the mean exponentially under Chain-of-Thought inference.
This article explores how prompt engineering can be used to improve time-series analysis with Large Language Models (LLMs), covering core strategies, preprocessing, anomaly detection, and feature engineering. It provides practical prompts and examples for various tasks.
This paper introduces Toto, a time series forecasting foundation model with 151 million parameters, and BOOM, a large-scale benchmark for observability time series data. Toto uses a decoder-only architecture and is trained on a large corpus of observability, open, and synthetic data. Both Toto and BOOM are open-sourced under the Apache 2.0 License.
A deep dive into time series analysis and forecasting methods, providing foundational knowledge and exploring various techniques used for understanding past data and predicting future outcomes.
The article discusses an interactive machine learning tool that enables analysts to interrogate modern forecasting models for time series data, promoting human-machine teaming to improve model management in telecoms maintenance.
