The article discusses methods for data scientists to answer 'what if' questions regarding the impact of actions or events without having conducted prior experiments. It focuses on creating counterfactual predictions using machine learning techniques and compares a proposed method with Google's Causal Impact. The approach involves using historical data and control groups to estimate the effect of modifications, addressing challenges such as seasonality, confounders, and temporal drift.
This article explains how adding monotonic constraints to traditional ML models can make them more reliable for causal inference, illustrated with a real estate example.
Exploring and exploiting the seemingly innocent theorem behind Double Machine Learning. The theorem, rooted in econometrics, states that if we have a linear model that predicts an outcome variable based on multiple features, and we want to understand the causal effect of a specific feature on the outcome, we can use the residuals of the model as an instrumental variable to estimate the causal effect.
