This article provides a roundup of notable time-series forecasting papers published between 2023 and 2024. It highlights five influential papers, including a case study from the online fashion industry, a review on forecasting reconciliation, and new deep learning models like TSMixer and CARD. The article emphasizes advancements in forecasting models, handling challenges in retail forecasting, and improvements in hierarchical forecasting methods.
The article discusses methods for data scientists to answer 'what if' questions regarding the impact of actions or events without having conducted prior experiments. It focuses on creating counterfactual predictions using machine learning techniques and compares a proposed method with Google's Causal Impact. The approach involves using historical data and control groups to estimate the effect of modifications, addressing challenges such as seasonality, confounders, and temporal drift.
TimesFM is a pretrained time-series foundation model developed by Google Research for time-series forecasting, focusing on point forecasts for univariate time series up to 512 time points with any horizon length and an optional frequency indicator.
This article discusses Time-MOE, an open-source time-series foundation model using Mixture-of-Experts (MOE) to improve forecasting accuracy while reducing computational costs. Key contributions include the Time-300B dataset, scaling laws for time series, and the Time-MOE architecture.
A deep dive into time series analysis and forecasting methods, providing foundational knowledge and exploring various techniques used for understanding past data and predicting future outcomes.
The article discusses an interactive machine learning tool that enables analysts to interrogate modern forecasting models for time series data, promoting human-machine teaming to improve model management in telecoms maintenance.
A powerful library by Amazon — coding example included
techniques may perform well, it is rarely the case, so you need a few backup.
Identifying the Type of Missingness
The first step to implementing an effective imputation strategy is identifying why the values are missing. Even though each case is unique, missingness can be grouped into three broad categories:
Missing Completely At Random (MCAR): this is a genuine case of data missing randomly. Examples are sudden mistakes in data entry, temporary sensor failures, or generally missing data that is not associated with any outside factor. The amount of missingness is low.
Missing At Random (MAR): this is a broader case of MCAR. Even though missing data may seem random at first glance, it will have some systematic relationship with the other observed features — for example — data missing from observational equipment during scheduled maintenance breaks. The number of null values may vary.
Missing Not At Random (MNAR):
Identifying the Type of Missingness
The first step to implementing an effective imputation strategy is identifying why the values are missing. Even though each case is unique, missingness can be grouped into three broad categories:
Missing Completely At Random (MCAR): this is a genuine case of data missing randomly. Examples are sudden mistakes in data entry, temporary sensor failures, or generally missing data that is not associated with any outside factor. The amount of missingness is low.
Missing At Random (MAR): this is a broader case of MCAR. Even though missing data may seem random at first glance, it will have some systematic relationship with the other observed features — for example — data missing from observational equipment during scheduled maintenance breaks. The number of null values may vary.
Missing Not At Random (MNAR):
